Featured Insights


Chart of the Week

U.S. ECONOMY: HEADING INTO OVERTIME

Chart courtesy of Clarion Partners. Sources: NBER, Moody’s Analytics, Clarion Partners Investment Research as of July 2019. Each year is the start period for each recession or expansion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment.

Market Snapshot

China targets U.S. farmers

China’s latest tariffs focus on U.S. agricultural exports; financial markets are pricing in at least one Fed rate cut this year; U.S. consumers’ debt load reached $13.67 trillion, with student debt outstripping auto loans.


Featured Insights

Investment Insights
Aug 06
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Consumer Confidence: Will Business Follow?

August 06, 2019

Why are consumers more confident in the economy than businesses now? The divergence poses acute questions for central bank policymakers.

Market Outlook
Jul 22
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

Rates: All Over but the Shouting

July 22, 2019

In light of the impending rate decision by the Fed, a look at key indicators of U.S. growth.

Investment Insights
Jul 08
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Australia: A Structural Story

July 08, 2019

Despite prevailing pessimism, Australian structural realities support a more optimistic outlook.

Investment Insights
Jun 25
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Lessons from Emerging Markets

June 25, 2019

Developed world policymakers should consider the experiences of EM economies that have embraced principles of Modern Monetary Theory.

Investment Insights
Jun 17
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Tepid Inflation: Yet Another Sign

June 17, 2019

The Fed could have a challenge on its hands if it hopes to discover signs of a pickup in inflation.

Investment Insights
Jun 10
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Political Risk and Emerging Markets

June 10, 2019

The impact of political realities on sentiment provides an important counterpoint to traditional economic indicators when evaluating structural shifts in emerging market countries.

Investment Insights
Jun 03
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Political Risk and Investors

June 03, 2019

How can investors analyze – and quantify – the levels of political risk for fixed income?

Investment Insights
May 29
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Chinese bonds: The Global Dimension

May 29, 2019

China's bonds are about to be included in important global bond indexes. Here's a primer on China's bond markets and what to expect when the markets go global.

Investment Insights
May 13
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

Why Kudlow Might Be Right

May 13, 2019

The willingness of U.S. consumers to spend is a crucial driver of interest rates – and global growth.

Investment Insights
May 06
Investment Insights

Around the Curve

The Fed's Inflation Problem

May 06, 2019

With inflation expectations plumbing new lows, the Fed may be reconsidering longstanding assumptions about monetary policy.

Market Outlook
Apr 29
Market Outlook

Around the Curve

Stocks: Five Currency Myths Debunked

April 29, 2019

Over the years, we've observed some widely held misconceptions about currencies’ role in global equity investing.

Market Outlook
Apr 22
Market Outlook

Q1 Macro Commentary

The End of Normalization

April 22, 2019

Confidence in the global economy a year ago led policymakers to move too far and too fast -- ultimately hurting growth. Fortunately, the pendulum appears to be swinging the other way.

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